It turns out that was no short-term reaction. 4 percent) they would have leaped so quickly. But one also wonders whether, had their desk known that the final margin would be under 11,000 votes (out of 3.3 million, under. (It was days later when others followed.) The most important thing is they got it right. But, like the Florida calls in 2000, it put their side more on the defensive, and of course even more so because of the source.įox News and AP were the only two major media outlets to make this call then. Obviously this one wrinkle didn’t stop weeks of made-up claims and denial of certified results. Not only that, but to argue against it, they had to say, “We need to wait until all ballots are counted.” Oops. And Fox calling it for Biden shot a hole right through the planned Trump “victory.” Not the likely one, but the overwhelmingly certain one. (One of their analysts said in a Los Angeles Times interview days later that 80 percent of the vote had been tabulated when the call was made.) They analyzed trends from different demographics, projected where the outstanding vote came from, and worked off mathematical models. But they called Arizona the same way all outlets do. As a result, Biden was ahead by as much a nine points early on.ĭecision desks don’t call races based on votes counted immediately unless the trend is decisive and sufficient returns from all regions are in. It was also a swing state, and unlike other closely contested ones, it didn’t suppress the tallying of mail-in and other early ballots. Majority Republican legislators in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania blocked any counting of early voting until later, distorting the actual outcome. And make no mistake: This was a carefully plotted strategy. The impact of the incumbent having the lead early on in sufficient states, particularly battleground ones, would allow him to declare “victory” and then use that when actual total results were counted. In case you’ve forgotten, here’s the context for the call: Commentators had warned the public that initial returns could be skewed toward same-day voting, which favored Donald Trump. The ramifications for Fox News have been significant ever since. Not only should the call Fox News made this year, declaring Joe Biden the winner in Arizona just after midnight, be added to the annals of key calls - it has to be one of the most important calls ever. Bush in Florida (and thus the presidency) added a major psychological boost for his cause. They have no legal standing, but in 2000, the initial premature calls for George W. These calls can have a huge role in close elections. And since it came from Fox News, it likely tamped down any dispute. In 2012, when Karl Rove disputed their call for Obama in Ohio, they broke the fourth wall and walked to their decision desk staff.
Unlike the cable site’s normal primetime programming (which is more opinion based), Fox News has traditionally played it straight in their election night coverage. Little did we know how on target we were. That was a key point of our Election Day article suggesting how best to view the results. And Fox is aggressive about being first, and are almost always right. They are known for having an excellent projection desk - that’s the people who declare winners based on available data. If you never would think of tuning into Fox News, this might be a time to do so.Įlection coverage is the one time I check them out.
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'This Won't Be the Last': Why Don Lemon Is Only Chris Licht's First Big Move at CNNĬNN Originals Hub Launches on Discovery+ with Over 800 TV Episodesīelow is the story published in February 2021 which recapped our pre-election reporting and updated it in context of subsequent events: conservative think tank and was recently hired as political editor for upstart network NewsNation. He currently is a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C.
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Based on everything that’s known, Stirewalt’s work at Fox News was professional and his personal political views were not relevant.
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